Wednesday, November 05, 2008

Canada awaits Obama's leadership on climate

From the Canadian Press. Maybe the new Conservative cabinet reads Maribo?

[Preface: It is rather fanciful to claim the Conservatives nascent cap-and-trade plan is similar to president-elect Obama's proposed cap-and-trade system that features auctioned carbon permits. The timing of these remarks from the Foreign Affairs Minister suggests the Conservatives hope to get credit for working with the universally-popular Obama to create a North American climate change initiative, even though in reality, they would simply be swept up by a plan put in motion by the US. Either way, it is a good start]

OTTAWA – Canada hopes to negotiate a North American climate-change deal with U.S. president-elect Barack Obama and will begin working on the file within weeks, Foreign Affairs Minister Lawrence Cannon said today. Meantime, officials told The Canadian Press the Harper government has been waiting for the departure of President George W. Bush to work with his successor on an integrated carbon market.

While states and provinces have been cobbling together a patchwork of approaches to climate change, federal officials said they have been eyeing a continent-wide solution for some time.

Cannon confirmed the issue will be a priority. He said the Conservative government will make Canada's positions on the environment known to the incoming Obama administration.

"We will be able to tackle this file on the North American level – on a continental level," he said.

"Over the coming weeks I know my colleague Jim Prentice, minister of the Environment, will be active on that file. I see that in a positive light."

The climate file offers a glimpse of the political benefit the Harper government could draw from an Obama presidency.

Liberals have been expressing hope for months that Obama's election might herald a progressive tidal wave across North America that would propel them back to power.

But even at an Ottawa election party where Liberals celebrated Obama's victory, several predicted that the prime minister will align himself closely with the new occupant of the White House.

They cited the climate issue as an example where the Conservatives have taken flak for repudiating the Kyoto Protocol – but could actually win plaudits by twinning their approach with Obama's.

The Conservatives plan to lower greenhouse gases three per cent from 1990 levels by 2020 – or 20 per cent from 2006 levels over that same period.

Obama has set a similar objective of reducing greenhouse gases to 1990 levels by 2020.

Both targets fall well short of Kyoto, an international agreement ratified by 180 countries, including Canada but not the U.S., that sets targets for reducing greenhouse gas emissions.

The Obama and Harper plans would rely in part on a cap-and-trade system.

Cap-and-trade systems place a ceiling on greenhouse gases and allow participating countries, provinces and states, or companies to buy and sell emissions permits within that cap.

Participants who don't meet the emissions targets can buy credits from those with a surplus instead of reducing their emissions.

The idea is to gradually lower the ceiling to control emissions. The Conservatives pledged in their 2008 election platform to work with the U.S. and Mexico to develop and implement a continent-wide system between 2012 and 2015.

Cannon said the next White House and the Harper government could easily work together on environmental issues. "There are a lot of similarities between the positions put forward and our position. This augurs well for a North American approach on environmental issues – specifically on climate change."

An internal Environment Canada briefing prepared in April compares Canada's regulatory requirements with those in major U.S. global-warming legislation that could become law under Obama's administration. The briefing says a "rough comparison" of the bi-partisan U.S. Climate Security Act and the Conservatives' Turning the Corner plan ``suggests that the two pieces of legislation are comparable."

The Canadian Press obtained the briefing under the Access to Information Act. The document, dated April 14, says Canada will seek a shared carbon market with the U.S., once Washington sets out its own regulations.

"If a greenhouse-gas regulatory regime and offsets system is developed in the United States, cross-border trading in emissions credits and offsets will be pursued," it says.

Another federal official close to the issue said Ottawa has been in a holding pattern for some time, expecting that only in a post-Bush era would there be movement toward a continental system like the one in Europe. Prime Minister Stephen Harper has hinted at that himself. At a G8 summit in Germany last year, he said it's difficult for one country in a shared economic space to set steep targets while its neighbour doesn't.

"We didn't want to go too tough on targets with Bush in the White House," said the federal official. "Because then if they (Americans) didn't follow, it would place Canadian industry at a disadvantage."

In the absence of a continental or national carbon market, regional schemes have popped up. The Western Climate Initiative, a coalition of four Canadian provinces and seven U.S. states, plans a regional market to trade carbon emissions. And earlier this year, the Ontario and Quebec governments agreed to forge ahead with an interprovincial carbon trading system. Ontario Premier Dalton McGuinty has said he would like the program in place by 2010.

Read More...

What can you say

I'm not smart enough, eloquent enough, wise enough, nor have I struggled enough in life or, for that matter, been on this planet long enough, to put into words the significance of Barack Obama's victory in the US presidential election.

Courtesy of the NY Times:

5 November 2008

Senator Barack Obama, Chicago

Dear Senator Obama,

We join people in your country and around the world in congratulating you on becoming the President-Elect of the United States. Your victory has demonstrated that no person anywhere in the world should not dare to dream of wanting to change the world for a better place.

We note and applaud your commitment to supporting the cause of peace and security around the world. We trust that you will also make it the mission of your Presidency to combat the scourge of poverty and disease everywhere.

We wish you strength and fortitude in the challenging days and years that lie ahead. We are sure you will ultimately achieve your dream making the United States of America a full partner in a community of nations committed to peace and prosperity for all.

Sincerely,

N R Mandela


Read More...

Sunday, November 02, 2008

Looking south

With the media even on the cold side of the 49th parallel also obsessed with Tuesday’s US election, Canadians may have missed the news that we have a new Environment Minister. Industry Minister Jim Prentice, a possible future Harper successor, has been shuffled over to the Environment portfolio.

Ignoring the basic fact that climate change does not belong solely under the jurisdiction of a ministry or department or organization labeled "environment", a mistake that diminishes the scale of the issue and is made far, far too often in Canada and around the world , when you combine the Prentice cabinet re-assignment with the political response to the ongoing economic crisis and the sorry spectacle of a Liberal leadership campaign on the heels of the defeat of Dion and the Green Shift, it is safe to say that we can say goodbye to whatever faint hope there was that the Conservative Party would announce, or be pushed by the opposition into announcing, a real plan for reducing industrial greenhouse gas emissions. It’ll be a surprise if the Conservatives do anything to implement or enforce the vacuous emissions-intensity based plan announced during the last session of Parliament, let alone assemble a plan with any teeth.

Unless, that is, there is pressure from the next US administration. Times sure have changed.

Read More...

Friday, October 31, 2008

Global warming, circa 1990

Long before blogs, inconvenient documentaries and climate scientists urging political leaders to place a price on carbon, astronomer and science populist Carl Sagan was sounding the alarm about global warming.

In the early 60s, Sagan did some back of the envelope calculations that showed that our neighbour Venus was subject to a runaway greenhouse effect. It led to a lifelong interest in the greenhouse effect on Earth. In 1990, Saturday Night Live spoofed his Earthly obsession in the "Carl Sagan Global Warming Christmas Special" (here's the transcript, the video may not cooperate).

Notice the confusion between ozone depletion and global warming. Oh, we've come so far.

Thanks to Jaymie Matthews of UBC for mentioning this in a recent talk.

Read More...

Friday, October 24, 2008

"Ocean deoxygenation"

Our friend Caspar Henderson has been searching for a good short phrase to describe the increase the ocean's "oxygen minimum zones" expected to happen as a result of climate change. His query led to a pretty fascinating exchange between a number of experts and the suggestion of ocean deoxygenation.

Just what is this "deoxygenation"?

A lot of intermediate and deep parts of the open ocean are depleted in oxygen. It is natural. First, algae growth on the surface leads to a rain of dead matter to the bottom. Decomposition of that material consumes oxygen. The deep oxygen can be refreshed by oxygen diffusing out of the air into surface waters if there is a lot of vertical mixing. But if the water is highly "stratified" -- say, a light, warm layer lying about a cold, dense layer -- there is little vertical mixing of waters.

This mechanism alo explains coastal hypoxic zones like the famous Gulf of Mexico "Dead Zone". The waters on the continental shelf of the northern Gulf are very stratified, thanks to the influx of fresh, light water from the Mississippi River. Hypoxia develops in the bottom water during the summer in part because of the lack of vertical mixing. That's why when a hurricane blows through, and the water gets all mixed, the dead zone tends to dissipate, or at least decrease in severity and extent.

The "ocean deoxygenation" concern comes from the fact that if climate change heats up the surface ocean, we get more stratification, less vertical mixing, and expansion of the existing ocean minimum zones in the ocean. Recent evidence suggests that is just what is happening.

Large areas of the intermediate and deep ocean have "naturally" low levels of oxygen.

Read More...

Wednesday, October 22, 2008

Market meltdowns and the drawbacks of trading carbon

There are valid economic arguments on either side of the carbon tax vs. cap-and-trade debate. If implemented properly, either policy instrument could accomplish the goal of pricing carbon and gradually reducing greenhouse gas emissions.

One common conclusion after the Canadian Liberal Party's electoral drubbing is that a carbon tax will never sell. It is deemed a political loser, because of the public's knee-jerk reaction to any invocation of that dirty little three-letter word. People much prefer the idea of industrial caps on emissions and a market system. Let the market solve the problem, not the government is a common refrain.

Right. How well are our markets do today?

There's a reason that many of the major investment banks from Goldman Sachs on down are in favour of establishing a carbon market. And it ain't polar bears or coral reefs. They see a massive opportunity for profit in trading of carbon permits.

It is incredibly naive to think the same problems that sunk the financial system won't arise in a carbon market. This article from the Wall Street Journal investigating sales of landfill "carbon offsets" on the voluntary Chicago Carbon Exchange offers a window into how profit-seeking would win out over greenhouse gas reductions in a freely traded carbon market.

I'm not against a cap-and-trade system. But we need to wake up and realize that a carbon trading system will be fraught with the very complications that have created and burst financial bubbles in the past twenty years. Traders will come up with complicated derivatives and trading instruments that regulators do not understand. Companies will propose offsets and reduction measures that cannot be guaranteed. And so on and so on.

Sure, a carbon tax may look like a political loser. Given the way lack of regulation and open cross-border financial trading is causing a meltdown of the global financial system, is the really public is willing to open a multi-billion or trillion dollar carbon trading system, not to mention the future of the planet, in the hands of the markets and investment firms?

Call me crazy, but I think the Liberals should save the Green Shift from the shredder.

Read More...

Friday, October 17, 2008

A mesmerizing end to the week

This fin-fish blimp is from an entry to an airship competition in Germany. The jaws of ichthyologists and biomechanists are dropping.

Air Art from flip on Vimeo.

Read More...

Wednesday, October 15, 2008

RIP theGreen Shift

Of all the political obituaries written last night, the most troubling is not that of a person, but that of a concept.

The Liberal Green Shift, specific inadequacies aside, would have done exactly what economists have been recommending for years. Shift taxes from income to carbon.

The Conservative victory, particularly here in BC where a provincial version of the income-to-carbon tax shift has met public resistance, is likely to convince a generation of politicians in Canada and abroad that an income to carbon tax shift is good policy, but bad politics. It make take years to overcome that judgment.

For now, one can hope that the opposition parties at least push the Conservative minority to install a more politically viable cap-and-trade system.

It would be ironic. Under cap-and-trade, companies are likely to pass some or all of the cost of emissions reduction on to the consumer. Despite the NDP's protestations about making the big polluters not the consumers pay, the net effect on a cap-and-trade system everyday activity will be quite similar to the carbon tax.

The biggest difference? The large bureaucracy and regulatory structure required for reporting, monitoring and management under cap-and-trade. That increase in government bureaucracy is exactly the sort of thing that no Canadian political party wants to support.

Read More...

Wednesday, October 08, 2008

Canadian scientists and economists plead with voters

A group of top climate and environmental scientists from across Canada have released a letter stating that "climate change is the defining issue of our time" and urging voters to "vote strategically for the environment" in Tuesday's election. That means vote for a party advocating a price on carbon. [Update: the Pembina Institute has a great analysis of the parties' carbon pricing policies]

It is a strong, clear statement. I can add only one thing: A vote for carbon pricing and action on climate change is not just a vote for the environment. It is a vote for the economy of the future.

And it is not just scientists. A group of top Canadian economists have released a very similar letter. The economists agreed on key principles:

  1. Canada needs to act on climate change now.
  2. Any substantive action will involve economic costs.
  3. These economic impacts cannot be an excuse for inaction.
  4. Pricing carbon is the best approach from an economic perspective.
    1. Pricing allows each business and family to choose the response that is best and most efficient for them.
    2. Pricing induces innovation.
    3. Carbon is almost certainly under-priced right now.
  5. Regulation is the most expensive way to meet a given climate change goal.
  6. A carbon tax has the advantage of providing certainty in the price of carbon.
  7. A cap and trade system provides certainty on the quantity of carbon emitted, but not on the price of carbon and can be a highly complex policy to implement.
  8. Although carbon taxes have the most obvious effects on consumers, all carbon reduction policies increase the prices individuals face.
  9. Price mechanisms can be regressive and our policy should address this.
  10. A pricing mechanism can allow other taxes to be reduced and provide an opportunity to improve the tax system.

Read More...

Wednesday, September 24, 2008

Developing a national climate policy

Last year, the UN Human Development Program released a report on how climate change will effect international development and global inequality. The report includes several case studies of industrial nations - including Canada (written by yours truly) and the US - and their progress, if any, towards "carbon neutral" growth.

Here are the general findings of the Canada case study. Implicit in this excerpt is the need for a price on carbon, established via either cap-and-trade, suggested at the time by all parties at the time the report was assemble, or a carbon tax, a political third rail until the introduction of the Green Shift:

Over the past fifteen years, Canada has failed to control growing GHG emissions despite a number of policy pronouncements. With a rapidly growing economy, grounded in oil and gas, and a growing population, achieving carbon neutral growth in Canada appears to be a formidable challenge. However, one should not forget that Canada is a highly educated and innovative nation with a strong history of promoting peace, equality, international development and global environmental protection. Canada also has a strong national interest in mitigating climate change which may already be impacting forestry and its Arctic peoples. A recent example is temperature-driven northward spread of the mountain pine beetle in British Columbia and Alberta that has devastated the Canadian forestry industry and forced the federal government to change its policy on including forests in the national carbon emissions budget.

Canada could achieve carbon neutral growth by shifting the national attention to improving energy efficiency, reducing emissions from energy production and developing new low-carbon technologies. The National Roundtable on the Environment and the Economy, an independent advisory body for the federal government, reports that Canada could achieve a 60% reduction in energy-related emissions 2050 through energy efficiency measures and new technologies in energy production. In addition to reducing Canada’s emissions burden, setting the country on this path would also address growing concerns about air quality and produce expertise and technology that could be exported to the world. A plan based on the following five themes would place Canada on the path towards long-term reductions in emissions without sacrificing economic development.

1. Strong leadership from the federal government: Following on the recommendations of Auditor General, Canada’s climate change effort should be centralized, ideally in the Prime Minister’s Office. This could ease integration of emissions reduction goals into all government operations, including energy, environment and international development, and reduce the territorial disputes between government departments and the provinces that inhibited past federal efforts. Though the provincial emissions reduction policies are promising, due to the breakdown of powers and taxation in the federalist system, the federal government must take the lead on implementation of carbon capture and storage technology in the energy sector, automotive fuel efficiency and funding public transit

2. Leverage existing policies. Despite years of relative inactivity on emissions reduction, many useful policy levers do exist. For example, the implementation plan can take advantage of: i) the Canadian Environmental Protection Act for regulating air pollutants, ii) the Energy Efficiency Act for setting residential, commercial and industrial standards, iii) the Wind Power Production Initiative for a framework for a renewable energy portfolio standards, iv) the Income Tax Act for expanding capital cost allowances for energy efficient construction and reducing capital cost allowances for development in the oil sands. Existing municipal and provincial policy initiatives and renewable portfolio standards can help introduce the appropriate forms of renewable energy – like hydro in Quebec, Manitoba and British Columbia, and wind in Alberta, Saskatchewan and Manitoba – into each region’s electricity mix.

3. Address the large final emitters (LFEs). To date, no government to has shown willingness to address the LFEs, responsible for almost half of Canada’s emissions. A clear policy signal from the federal government would direct capital investment and provide incentives for companies to develop new technologies. The most effective option may be the proposed cap-and-trade system that features hard emissions targets by sector, limited purchase of domestic and international offsets and the development of a national green investment fund. It would take advantage of existing market forces, provide financial opportunities for Canadian industry and fuel spending in research and development.

4. Empower communities. Canadian cities have shown the ability to reduce emissions through control over urban planning, public transit, energy purchases and building codes. Infrastructure funding from higher levels of government can be directed to proven initiatives like tax credits for retrofitting buildings, mortgage assistance for energy efficiency improvements, expanded public transit, vehicle and road restrictions, waste reduction and landfill gas capture, electricity co-generation and development of renewable energy sources.

5. Promote new technology. Reducing emissions from the oil and gas sector and the transportation sector will depend on technological development, some of which will occur outside the country. Federal policy and infrastructure funding will be needed to promote the development of carbon capture and storage technology to reduce emissions from the oil sands. Although Canada has little direct control over vehicle technology, joining the initiatives by some U.S. states to place limits of carbon emissions from passenger vehicles, and direct U.S. attention to the often overlooked issue of truck fuel efficiency, would expedite the shift to more fuels efficient vehicles.

The shift in national attentions must happen soon to meet a long-term the suggested emissions target. With almost $100 billion in investments in development planned for the next 15 years in the oil and gas sector alone, Canada risks increasing its global atmospheric burden. A binding, long-term federal emissions policy and implementation plan is crucial to encouraging sustainable investment by the private sector, especially in the oil and gas sector.

Read More...

Monday, September 22, 2008

More opinions on the Green Shift

A few comments from Globe and Mail columnist Jeffery Simpson:

On the Conservative approach:

... the Conservatives have said nothing in the campaign about greenhouse gas emissions, except that they have a "plan," before launching into an attack on the Liberal Green Shift. They do have a "plan," of sorts. It is based on getting GHGs down from a 2006 baseline by 20 per cent by 2020. I and almost everyone outside the Conservative Party do not think the plan will achieve that objective, but we shall see.

In any event, it consists of (a) a series of small programs under the heading "eco" that are designed to get people to use energy more efficiently and to promote non-fossil fuel use, (b) intensity improvements in the emissions produced by larger emitters, (c) payment into a technology fund if emitters do not meet their reductions, (d) tighter vehicle emission standards, and (e) the completely useless ethanol subsidies for farmers to grow more corn. They have also muted the possibility of a national cap-and-trade system.


On the the consequence of failure to support the Liberal Green Shift:

... the policy will not be picked up politically for a long time. In other words, politicians of every stripe will be unwilling to take the political risks involved. It will therefore be like private delivery of health services paid for publicly, something permitted under the Canada Health Act but deemed political suicide by politicians everywhere.

We will therefore settle for a series of rather ineffectual but feel-good policies such as the Conservatives "eco" ones — energy efficiency etc — and intensity targets from which companies can and will escape by paying into a technology fund which will bring benefits perhaps many years from now.

When and if the Americans establish a cap-and-trade system, as Mr. Obama and Mr. McCain have endorsed, we will seek to negotiate joining the U.S. system to make it a North American one.

Similarly, should the Americans adopt tougher vehicle emission standards than those proposed by the Harper government, we will toughen ours.

In other words, the Americans will save us from our own policy incoherence.

Read More...

Sunday, September 21, 2008

Truth and complications: The Green Shift

Read any story, online or in print, about the Liberal Party’s “Green Shift” and you will learn two things. First, that the Green Shift is a “carbon tax”. Second, that it is complicated.

The first is inaccurate. The second is just false.

We could discuss how these memes have spread, who is to blame, and the general warping of reality in modern politician campaigns (say something, anything, enough times and it might become true). I’ll leave that to the political bloggers. Here, let's cover the truth about the Green Shift.

First, the Green Shift is an economic plan. The main feature of the plan is a small shift in taxation from income to carbon-based fuels. Yes, the plan features a carbon tax. It also features income tax cuts, corporate tax cuts, tax credits for green investments, tax credits for rural and northern communities, and tax credits for middle class families. Labeling the Green Shift a carbon tax is defining an economic plan based on one incomplete component; you could just as soon call the Green Shift an income tax cut.

Second, it is not complicated. Here’s how it works. The tax on carbon-based fuels begins at $10 per tonne of carbon, and will increase by $10 a ton until reaching $40 in the fourth year. At the same time, income and corporate tax cuts will return the revenue from the carbon-based fuel tax to consumers and the marketplace. Government revenue will not change.

In fact, the Liberals are so vigilant about the tax shift being revenue neutral that the plan will require the Auditor General to evaluate the revenue every year. If there is a net increase in government revenue, it will be returned to taxpayers.

There you go. That’s essentially the plan. Not complicated.

Now, working out the exact impact on your taxes and your fuel, heat and electricity expenditures requires a bit of math. Of course it does. That is true every time there is a change in the tax code or a change in government.

It is an insult to Canadians to keep calling this too complicated. If anything, the Green Shift is actually simpler than the tax plans put forth by the other parties. The Green Shift integrates all the major tax changes into one plan, one document. It is easy to read and evaluate. The other parties are announcing tax changes one by one, making it difficult to assess the aggregate impact on personal, or federal, finances.

I am not advocating for the Liberal Party or the specifics of the Green Shift. I am advocating for a real, intelligent, honest discussion about reducing Canada's greenhouse gas emissions.

Read More...

Friday, September 19, 2008

Watching the cryosphere

The Arctic sea ice appears to have reached the minimum extent for this season, short of last year's record. If you just can't wait another eight or nine months for more news about the shrinking cryosphere, never fear. There a several sites monitoring the movement of mountain glaciers and the Greenland Ice Sheet.

The Extreme Ice Survey has some fantastic still (and time lapse photos) from cameras set up on a few mountain glaciers and in Greenland. And I just got a note from someone at Sermitsiaq, a Greenlandic newspaper about a new web cam that offers the opportunity to "watch as Greenland melts". Be sure to get yourself a comfortable seat, the melting may take a while.

Read More...

Thursday, September 18, 2008

Global NIMBYism

I have a post up on Worldchanging about the opportunity posed by the otherwise silly U.S. debate about offshore drilling. The post was inspired by a random experience in Malaysia a few years ago.

An excerpt:

For years, far too much of environmentalism has been rooted in old-fashioned "not in my backyard" arguments known as NIMBY-ism. It worked when the issues were simply protecting a local park from a new roadway. In a globalized world, with raw resources, goods and services openly traded from Anchorage, Alaska to Zanzibar; from Addis Ababa to Zephyr, North Carolina—with resource extraction and pollution causing global environmental crises (from climate change to transboundary air pollution to global fisheries depletion), we need to think beyond our backyards, and beyond our coasts.

Read More...

Tuesday, September 16, 2008

McCain and Obama positions on climate change

Science Debate 2008 - the proposed televised presidential debate on science and science policy - will not actually happen this election season. The candidates have now both responded to the organizers list of 14 questions about science and science policy.

This written Q&A lacks the unscripted exchange that could, although often does not, occur during an actual live debate. It does at least provide voters with an outline on each campaign`s position on range of important issues related to science, something not happening in the Canadian election. It also spares us the possible spectacle of interviewers testing the candidates knowledge of science; the Palin interview on ABC was like watching a stern high school teacher conduct an oral exam and the student repeat everything memorized during a recent cram session (that should not be necessary, nor is it terribly useful for anyone involved).

The NY Time`s DotEarth suggests we can at least cheer the responses to the question about climate change. Both McCain and Obama both support cuts in steep cuts in greenhouse gas emissions to combat climate change.

I was struck by the difference between the opening sentences. The McCain line is particularly disappointing.

McCain:

We know that greenhouse gas emissions, by retaining heat within the atmosphere, threaten disastrous changes in the climate.


What is striking here is the choice to open with threaten disastrous changes in the climate. Why not open with what the science states: that greenhouse gas emissions are changing the climate, and the changes could become disastrous if left unchecked? The omission of the first clause is very curious. McCain`s opening line fails to recognize that the climate is currently changing, only that it might some day. That is a big difference.

Obsessive nitpicking? Possibly. However, we should keep in mind the words in these prepared statements are chosen very carefully.

For comparison, Obama:

There can no longer be any doubt that human activities are influencing the global climate and we must react quickly and effectively.

This statement is far more direct. Influencing is a bit more subtle than the preferred word changing but not unusual for statements about climate change (perhaps Obama is worried about the issue stealing the change mantle?)

The differences in wording are small, and appear unimportant. But they matter when it comes to federal and international climate policy. Look at the mess made by the Bush Administration`s continued use of aspirational goals rather than targets.

Read More...

Friday, September 12, 2008

Hurricane Ike's impact on the US, Cuba and Haiti

Hurricane Ike is about to make landfall in Texas. Ike is so broad that it is affecting an area from Mexico all the way to Florida. Though only a category 2-3 storm, Ike may turn out to be one of the most destructive hurricanes in US history. Thankfully, a million or more residents of coastal Texas have left for higher ground.

The immediate concern from such a large storm is the surge, which may top 20 feet in Galveston, Texas. Heavy rainfall may also be a serious concern, and not only in coastal areas. The forecast rainfall in the central and midwestern US, far from the Gulf of Mexico, is also expected cause extensive flooding.

Amidst the U.S. media storm that is likely to follow the actual storm, we may forget about the victims of Ike in Haiti and Cuba [UPDATE: like, for example, worrying about gas prices]. In Haiti, a poor nation with little modern infrastructure and a deforested countryside prone to landslides, Ike and earlier storms have killed a thousand or more people, left hundreds of thousands more temporarily or permanently homeless and destroyed most of the nation's crops. Donations to aid the relief effort can go to the American Red Cross and the Canadian Red Cross, as well as a number of other organizations.

The impact of Ike on Cuba was not quite as severe. Regardless of what one might think about the Cuban government, there is no denying from current and past experience with hurricanes that the centralized system is reasonably effective at dealing with disasters. The difference between the impact of Ike in Haiti, Cuba and possibly the US is a reminder adaptive capacity is as, if not more, important than the physical magnitude of the storm or other "disturbance" event.

Read More...

Biofuels losing luster?

After all the hubbub, could biofuels turn out to be an example of science leading to sound policy? Legislators in Europe are responding to the evidence questioning the efficiency of biofuels.

From the NY Times:

PARIS — European legislators said Thursday that government goals for using biofuels should be pared back, prompting the fledgling industry to fire back with a campaign warning that alternatives may be no cleaner.

European governments pledged last year to increase the use of biofuels to 10 percent of all transport fuel by 2020, amid expectations that energy derived from crops would provide a low-carbon alternative. On Thursday, the European Parliament’s influential Industry Committee endorsed the general 10 percent target — but added a number of modifications meant to move away from traditional biofuels made from grains or other crops toward other, renewable energy sources.

By 2015, it called for having 5 percent of transport fuels be from renewable sources, with at least a fifth of that amount from “new alternatives that do not compete with food production.” That could include sources like hydrogen or electricity from renewable sources, or biofuels made from waste, algae or non-food vegetation. The lawmakers stuck to the 10 percent target for 2020, but said at least 40 percent of that should be made up of such “second-generation” renewables. But that target would have to be reviewed in 2014.

The lawmakers were reacting to waning enthusiasm for biofuels. Over the last year, scientists and environmental advocates have warned that some biofuels may be more polluting than fossil fuels, and that the diversion of crops to fuel production may be a factor in rising food prices.

Read More...

Regardless of the reason for climate change

From ABC News:

"Do you still believe that global warming is not man made?" Gibson asked Palin.

"I believe that man's activities certainly can be contributing to the issue of global warming, climate change. Here in Alaska, the only arctic state in our Union, of course, we see the effects of climate change more so than any other area with ice pack melting. Regardless though of the reason for climate change, whether it's entirely, wholly caused by man's activities or is part of the cyclical nature of our planet -- the warming and the cooling trends -- regardless of that, John McCain and I agree that we gotta do something about it and we have to make sure that we're doing all we can to cut down on pollution."

Consider the last sentence. We need to take action against climate change regardless of whether it is caused by humans. That is a very bizarre statement. If the entire scientific community is wrong and climate change was not actually caused by humans, instead, say, by the sun as some skeptics argue, what would you do to stop it? Are we talking about geoengineering? Moving the Earth's orbit? This cannot be what Gov Palin or her advisors were intending to say.

"Certainly can be contributing" is hardly unequivocal support for science. At least the fact that this question was asked, and the tortured wording in the response, confirms that the media expects our leaders to grasp the importance of climate change.

Read More...

Tuesday, September 09, 2008

Climate change on the Late Show

Watch this. You might disagree with the specifics or the "we're dead meat" tone. Regardless, it is good to see televisions hosts like David Letterman talk about climate change and talk about it with what seems to be real passion.

Read More...

Monday, September 08, 2008

Is international climate policy a failure?

A recent post on the Nature blog Climate Feedback comparing the GHG emission reduction targets under various international policies with the recent changes in those emissions. The point includes the figure (right), which shows that international GHG emissions are diverging away from the long-term targets. Naturally this is leading others out in the online echo-chamber to imply that international policy has not worked or will not work (e.g. Prometheus).

No doubt, the world has failed to curb greenhouse gas emissions. But this particular glass is half-empty because it has a few cracks.

First, the targets set at the 1988 Toronto Conference and the inaugural 1992 UNFCCC meeting were preliminary goals. At the time, reporting frameworks and institutional mechanisms were not in place. It is debatable whether the targets, especially the Toronto Conference target, belong on the graph.

Second, the other targets applied to only a subset of nations. Only developed countries accepted reduction targets under the Kyoto Protocol. Now, of course, the increase in global emissions since 1990 (the open circles) is obviously the greatest concern to the climate. But if the goal of the figure is to illustrate the efficacy, or lack thereof, of international policy, it makes no sense to plot global emissions against emissions reduction targets for selected nations. Only the emissions reported by developed countries under the UNFCCC (the solid circles) should be compared to the Kyoto target, and the emissions of a subset of those countries should be compared to the EU target. A revised figure (right) gives a different impression.

Rather than use the emissions data to assert that setting reduction targets does not work, one might actually argue the exact opposite. The difference between dark and open circles suggests that emissions growth has occurred mostly only in countries did not set targets. In other words, it is possible, at least from the data, that the target setting made a difference.

There’s one more complication, too. As we all know, the United States, the largest emitter among the developed countries, failed to ratify the Kyoto agreement. Yet the U.S. emissions are included in the total for developed countries (the solid circles). Subtract out the U.S., where emissions have increased by ~16% since 1990, and the countries with targets would appear even closer to the Kyoto target.

This is a very simple analysis. I am not defending the Kyoto Protocol or any other international climate agreements. There are a myriad of problems with the pace of the international negotiations and with the progress on emissions reductions in Europe, in North America, in countries from the former Soviet Union and definitely in China, India and the rapidly industrializing countries. Regular readers know that this blog has been extremely critical of Canada’s lack of effort to meet the Kyoto target, of the U.S. failure to participate in emissions reductions, and of the achingly slow process of setting long-term emissions reduction targets based on scientific analysis of the dangerous impacts of climate change.

Nevertheless, it would simply be incorrect to conclude [from the mix of regional and global data on the original figure] that existing international policies have completely failed, or that a truly global policy, in an emissions target is set for the entire planet, will fail.

Read More...

Sunday, September 07, 2008

Climate and the election (I)

The writ dropped this morning. The Canadian election is on for Oct 14th.

Over the next 38 days, I'll do my best to summarize the pros and cons of each party's climate and energy policies or lack thereof.

If you fear that the tone of this campaign season will descend to, or below, that of the neverending shouting match that is the US election, I offer this half-full glass.

We are, at least, finally fighting an election about how to address climate change and future energy needs. This should have happened many cycles ago.

Read More...

Wednesday, September 03, 2008

Elections, elections oh my

For the second time in eight years, both Canada and the US are headed for elections at roughly the same time. Climate change should have been a central issue back in 2000: there was climate change expert Al Gore running against a largely unaware George Bush in the US, and Jean Chretien and the Kyoto-trumpeting Liberals angling for re-election in Canada. But it barely cracked the agenda.

This time around, climate change is much more front and central. But not in the way we, or the planet, needs.

Three examples:

1. On August 29th - four DAYS ago - the following question was posed to Sarah Palin, John McCain's running mate: "What is your take on global warming and how is it affecting our country?". The answer?

A changing environment will affect Alaska more than any other state, because of our location. I'm not one though who would attribute it to being man-made.

Either McCain's team truly did fail to talk to Palin in depth before offering her the job, or her selection is about religious politics, and nothing else. The news organizations and blog are attacking Palin's qualifications for Vice-President, musing about foreign policy experience, governing experience, etc. In 2008, after four IPCC reports and countless summaries of the science by the National Academies of different nations have definitively concluded that human activity is changing the climate, and after leaders of countless nations have stated that climate change is one of, if not the, greatest threat of the 21st century, not "believing" climate change is manmade should alone be a disqualification. And in 2008, this belief, in general, also raise concerns about trusting and evaluating expert judgment, one of the most important jobs of a political leader.

[don't even get me started on teaching creationism in school]

2. Barack Obama is not innocent either. In his acceptance speech, Obama threw a bone to the coal industry by citin "clean coal" as a solution to oil and climate crises. Clean coal, a term promoted by the coal companies, refers to coal-burning plants which emit lower concentrations of air pollutants like sulfur. It has nothing whatsoever to do with greenhouse gas emissions. Experts or regular readers on climate and energy know this. Does the average voter?

3. The Canadian election promises to be equally petty. The Harper Government has attacked revenue-neutral Dion's Green Shift plan as a tax hike and grab. Revenue-neutral. That is not a tax hike. The Liberals, fearing these attacks, are already weakening the plan by providing subsidies for fishers, farmers and truckers. Changes like this are not unreasonable. But they show that the public discourse will be dominated by juvenile and distracting "tax grab"-like arguments rather than the very necessary discussion of how Canada can implement a price on carbon.

How do we change this? We've got only around six weeks in Canada, and only eight weeks in the US, to elevate the discussion.

Read More...

Thursday, August 21, 2008

Shouldn't the show jumping horses get to stand on the medal podium along with the riders?

Read More...

In honour of the Olympics

A blast from Maribo's past:

BEIJING (Unassociated Press) - The climate’s second doping sample contained elevated levels of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases, scientists at an Olympic doping lab confirmed on Friday.

Pierre Martin, who chairs the Olympic testing facility, said they discovered the carbon dioxide in the climate’s B sample had to have come from an outside source. The doping tests were ordered after the climate produced one of the warmest years in recorded history.

The result comes after years of speculation by scientists, environmentalists and the media that the climate was participating in an elaborate, clandestine doping program. The test appears to confirm that ingestion of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases by the climate is the primary cause of global warming.

Lawyers for the oil and coal industry continue to claim that warming is due to natural variability, and questioned the motives of the scientists at the testing lab.

“The climate has never knowingly ingested any illegal substances to enhance performance,” said spokesman Michael Henson. “This is the same old witch hunt, led by a group of maverick scientists jealous of the size of American cars and homes.”

The head of the World Anti-Doping Agency, Richard Pound, dismissed the claims of the global warming ‘skeptics’.

“Barry Bonds, Marion Jones, the Ozone Layer, the strategy never changes. Deny, deny, deny,” argued Pound. “This time, the evidence is incontrovertible.”

The testing lab reports that carbon dioxide appears to have been the main element in an elaborate greenhouse gas program. Scientists confirm unnatural levels of methane, human growth hormone, nitrous oxide and a several other lesser greenhouse gases.

“The extent of the doping program is unprecedented,” added WADA head Pound. “The atmosphere has even been using a mysterious substance that our scientists have labeled ‘black carbon’”.

Pound added that his agency will move to strike the climate’s many recent temperature marks from the record books.

The climate’s A sample, taken in the 1990s, found that the planet appeared to be warming. Carbon dioxide – commonly referred to by the code “CO2” – was thought to be the primary culprit. While carbon dioxide does exist naturally in the atmosphere, it can also be introduced through activities like the burning of fossil fuels like oil.

The natural level of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere is thought to be around 280 parts per million (ppm). The B sample, collected after the warmest year in recorded history, showed a level of close 380 ppm, far in excess of the WADA limit.

Most damning for the climate is a new carbon isotope ratio test used by French testing lab. The test confirmed that the additional CO2 in the atmosphere was not naturally generated, and must be derived from an outside source like oil or coal burning.

Computer models developed by scientists at NASA also show that the additional CO2 is the only way to explain the climate’s performance over the past thirty year.

“You simply cannot generate this pattern of warming from natural causes alone,” commented NASA scientist James Hansen.

In anticipation of a positive test results, the climate has engaged in a broad media campaign. In a book to be released this June, the climate floats a number of theories for the elevated CO2 level, including a rash of recent forest fires, medication being taken to rectify the ozone hole, dehydration from the Indian monsoon and a bratwurst festival in Milwaukee on the day of the test.

The climate has few supporters left in the Earth community. In a brief statement, the Greenland Ice Sheet, the small island nation of Tuvalu, the Great Barrier Reef and thirteen other prominent geographical features called for action:

“The latest positive test signals that it is time to end the fruitless debate about the science. We must move on to solutions to the doping problem.”

The positive test could lead to strict regulations on carbon emissions. The atmosphere has one earlier doping offense, a positive test for CFCs that caused the ozone hole over Antarctica. Under World Anti-Doping Agency rules, a second infraction brings a lifetime ban on industrial emissions.

Although it is unclear whether a restriction on emissions can be enforced, many in the Earth community argue it is necessary to level the playing field.

“We all knew something wasn’t right with the climate,” said the Arctic sea ice. “I’ve lost 40% of my summer cover in the past 30 years. You’re telling me that is natural?”

Read More...

Tuesday, August 19, 2008

Accidents in the Arctic

This summer has seen a record number of boats - cruise ships, commercial vessels, military ships, and boats full of scientists - in the Arctic. Aware that the downward trend in ice cover is prompting an increase in boat traffic, the Canadian military decided to rehearse for any possible accidents:

Beginning tomorrow , the army, navy and air force will begin Operation Nanook 08, the latest in a series of manoeuvres designed to boost Canada's Arctic sovereignty and increase the military's ability to respond to emergencies.

Operation Nanook will simulate an outbreak of disease on a cruise ship, a hostage-taking on a cruise ship, a fuel spill and a fire on a Russian cargo ship.

Are the exercises necessary? More than you might think. Apparently the opening of the Northwest Passage is already drawing yachtees tired of the Caribbean:

A total of 26 commercial cruises are planned in the Canadian Arctic this season, a historic high and an increase of four trips over last summer. As well, at least eight private vessels are thought to be sailing in and around the Northwest Passage.

Franklin would be jealous.

Read More...

Friday, August 15, 2008

Over 400 dead zones around the world (Science)

The latest issue of Science features a new review of the world's marine dead zones. Scientists have now reported over 400 regions of the coastal ocean like the Gulf of Mexico dead zone where nutrient pollution fuels the depletion of oxygen from the bottom waters, threatening ecosystem function and marine species. Most of these "hypoxic" - less than 2 mL of oxygen per litre of water - and anoxic zones arose in the last few decades due to nitrogen fertilizer use and associated intensive agricultural activities, and to industrial pollution.

The map below shows the dead zone along with a measure of the human footprint on land. The dead zones have also been plotted on Google Maps.

Read More...

Tuesday, August 12, 2008

Coral grief

"It's a moment for straight talking, in terse, uncompromising language, to as many people as possible."

The conclusion of the Guardian's Tim Radford, after attending the International Coral Reef Society meeting last month.

Read More...

Geopolartics

Recent storms north of Alaska and Siberia have accelerated the ice melt in the Arctic. The summer melt in the Arctic had been lagging behind last year (right). The shift in pressure systems, coupled with thinness of the existing ice, means this year could still give 2007 and William Connolley and run for their money.

Leaving the science aside, this means there will be no shortage of news stories about the legal battle over which countries, if any, have rights to which parts of the Arctic sea floor. To the lay observer, the competing claims to Arctic sea floor will appear either ridiculous or intractable. Or both.

For example, the most significant dispute is over the Lomonosov Ridge, a 1800 km spine of the Earth's crust that running under the Arctic from Russia to Canada. For the past several years, the Russians have been arguing that the ridge is an extension of Russia's continental shelf.

Why? The Law of the Sea, signed back in 1982 and ratified in 1994, states that a country has exclusive economic rights to everything within 200 nautical miles of the coastline. There's one exception: if the country's continental shelf - defined as "the natural prolongation of the land territory to the continental margin's outer edge" - extends beyond 200 nautical mile limit. If Russia "proves" that the Lomonosov Ridge is geologically related to the country's traditionally recognized continental shelf, it can claim exclusive rights to a huge swath of the Arctic sea bed, including the North Pole.

International agreements aside, it strains credulity that the results of the ongoing scientific exploration of the Arctic sea floor, including the ridge in question, will actually settle the argument. Would the rest of the world really allow Russia, or Canada for that matter, claim ownership of a huge swatch of the Arctic Ocean because a 1800-km long undersea geological formation that was under permanent ice and totally inaccessible when the Law of the Sea was developed just happens to connect to the Russian continental shelf?

Surely the provision of territorial rights to undersea ridges extending 1000s of kilometres under the frozen Arctic Ocean was not the intention of the Law of the Sea, and especially the precursor agreement, when it was passed. And surely, Russia did not originally settle and lay claim to the northern regions with the understanding that it would provide access to an unknown deep sea floor ridge hundreds of metres below a frozen sea no one had explored.

The dispute over the Arctic is a prime example of how even our laws need to adapt to a changing planet. It is a shame the world didn’t have the foresight to place the Arctic Ocean under international protection, like Antarctica. It is hard to imagine that happening now.

Read More...

Thursday, August 07, 2008

More on the fierce urgency of now for coral reefs

Jim Hendee has set up the blog Educating the Masses to help organize efforts to "educate the public on the plight of coral reef ecosystems."

Read More...

The future of marine fisheries

Among the many terrific talks at the International Coral Reef Symposium meeting last month was a plenary by the Daniel Pauly, head of the Sea Around Us Project of the UBC Fisheries Centre on the state of the world’s coral reef fisheries.

Aside from being one of the world’s top fisheries biologists, Pauley is among the best science communicators out there. He originated the term “shifting baselines”, a illustration of the way (fisheries) scientists often underestimate the "baseline" size of wild populations, and now also the name of a nice blog run by Jennifer Jacquet, one of Pauley’s students here in the land of salmon, and others.

The final message of his talk is worth repeating, and will be surprising to many: Small scale fisheries might be the only realistic future for marine fisheries.

Why? The work to reconstruct trends in fisheries catch done by the Sea Around Us Project suggests that the future for large-scale industrial fishing is bleak. Industrial catch is decreasing for two reasons. First, the obvious one. Fisheries are being depleted. Second, higher oil prices makes running large boats too expensive. Combine the two, and it is costing more and more money to catch fewer, and fewer, and smaller, and less desirable species of fish.

The despair brings hope for a return to more sustainable fishing practices. Small scale, more local fisheries - the type of fishing done in the tropical developing nations, where doing coral reef field work often means helping some local fishermen troll for a tuna or pile fresh squid into an icebox - are not only more environmentally efficient, they are becoming more economically efficient. In the future, these fisheries may be able to provide more jobs, and more sustainable jobs, than the current large-scale industrial fisheries.

Read More...

Sunday, August 03, 2008

The future of carbon offsets

The carbon offset game is fraught with problems. A myriad of companies now promise to offset your personal emissions through activities like protecting forests, planting trees and investing in renewable energies. Even for the most responsible and earnest of companies, the emissions reductions are difficult to quantify or verify. And many of the offset schemes fail to prevent “downstream” emissions that counteract the offsetting activity. For example, if a well-intentioned company protects the right area of the right forest from logging to “prevent” the designated amount of carbon dioxide from being released to the atmosphere, but there is no equivalent change in pulp and paper use, a forest has to be logged elsewhere to meet demand.

Here's a possible solution: Rather than pay to have a company attempt to physically offset the emissions, Carbon Retirement lets you purchase and “retire” carbon credits from the European emissions trading network. By removing those carbon credits from the market, your purchase permanently lowers the total emissions cap in the trading system. This guarantees that companies subject to the trading system will reduce emissions by the designated amount (presuming emissions are properly measured and reported within the trading system). As more trading schemes emerge – Canada, the United States and Australia are all considered trading schemes – the "retirement" method could to revolutionize, and legitimize, the consumer offset game.

[Note: I have no connection to the company. I like the concept. If other similar companies may exist, you are welcome to add links in the comments.]

Read More...

Wednesday, July 23, 2008

The conflict between ethanol and animal feed

The NY Times reports that at least one major livestock producing state is objecting to the use of corn for ethanol, because it diverts corn away from, and raise the price of, animal feed:

Gov. Rick Perry of Texas is asking the Environmental Protection Agency to temporarily waive regulations requiring the oil industry to blend ever-increasing amounts of ethanol into gasoline. A decision is expected in the next few weeks. Mr. Perry says the billions of bushels of corn being used to produce all that mandated ethanol would be better suited as livestock feed than as fuel.

This are exactly the type of conflict we wrote about in our study on corn-based ethanol production and the Gulf of Mexico "Dead Zone".

From the conclusion:

The land cover analysis in this study raises questions about the availability of land to radically increase ethanol or other biofuel production. Reaching the proposed biofuel production goals will lead to trade-offs between cropland demands for food, feed, and fuel, even when the use of ethanol coproducts as feed is considered. The mitigation scenario demonstrates that reducing the cultivation of animal feed, the majority domestic use of corn and soybeans (2), is one way of attaining the croplands necessary for biofuel production.
A sharp reduction in feed cultivation and animal production in the U.S. is purely hypothetical; it would require a substantial change in culture and the reduction of an industry that provides income and employment to a large number of Americans. However, given the probable ceilings on cropland area, grain yields and use of ethanol coproducts as animal feed, a gradual decrease in use of corn and soybeans for animal feed may be a necessary consequence of the projected increase in demand for biofuels.

Read More...

Talking about climate change and coral reefs

There are quite a few good comments (and one amusing bumper sticker) so far on how the scientific community can better communicate the immediacy of the climate change threat to coral reefs. Let’s keep the discussion going.

Read More...

Canadian government hiding climate change reports

The Conservative government is developing a rather bad habit of quietly burying government reports about the impacts of climate change. Remember the huge “From Impacts to Adaptation” study put together last year by experts across Canada at the behest of Natural Resources Canada?

You don’t?

Oh right, there was no press release, and it was only made available published in a dark corner of the NRCAN web maze.

Now, the Globe and Mail has discovered that the federal government was planning a similarly “low-profile release” of Health Canada’s 500-page study on how climate change will affect the health of Canadians.

This government's actions are childish. And I say that literally. This is the political equivalent of a child stewing in the backseat throughout an unwanted trip then stubbornly refusing to get out when you arrive at the destination.

I'm offended more as a taxpayer than as a scientist. A lot of taxpayer dollars - via government salaries, consultant fees and research expenses - are used to create these reports. Now, I happen to think it is worth spending our tax dollars on these reports. Others may disagree. Either way, we all foot the bill, so we should be given amble opportunity to see what we've paid for.

Why even spend the money and time on doing this research if they are not going to be made available for the country to use for education and decision-making?

Read More...

Saturday, July 19, 2008

Over the moon for Gore?

The climate and energy pundits are in a tizzy over Al Gore's recent speech calling for the US to shift to 100% renewable energy in the next ten years. Though many admire Gore's chutzpah, pretty much everyone is ridiculing the goal as unrealistic.

Of course it is. That's the entire point. If you're Al Gore - a free agent, but one with the ability to influence the US policy - you don't set a compromise target, you aim for the moon. The use of the moon shot analogy in his speech was no accident.

Any renewable energy goal set by Obama or McCain will be judged against Gore's standard. Until now, the US has struggled to pass renewable portfolio standards on the order of 10-20%. Now, if say Obama calls for a 25% RPS by 2020, it will seem realistic.

Read More...

Tuesday, July 15, 2008

Coral reefs: The fierce urgency of now

Maribo's been on hiatus while I was preparing for and attending the 11th International Coral Reef Symposium in Fort Lauderdale. The conference is held only every four years; if you do any coral reef research, IRCS is not to be missed.

One of the overarching messages of the conference, featured in the plenaries, countless individual scientific presentations and the press coverage, was the urgency of dealing with climate change to ensure the survival of the world's coral reefs. I'll have more on the science later. Right now, I'd like to what we do with the science.

Several speakers strongly argued that the scientific community must do everything possible to raise public awareness of the threat that rising CO2 and ocean warming poses to coral reefs. At least two independent talks invoked the Barack Obama slogan that titles this post.

In connection with the International Year of the Reef, a collection of US agencies has created a set of advertisements for use by the coral reef conservation community. A nice, well-intentioned effort. Yet only one of the five (downloadable) advertisements deals with climate change, and that ad simply suggests that people purchase compact flourescent light bulbs, which is hardly a groundbreaking energy efficiency tip.

This seems completely out of touch with the message from the ICRS. Doesn't the community need a far, far stronger message? Any suggestions?

Read More...

Wednesday, June 25, 2008

Are emissions growing faster than the models say?

There have been a number of recent studies warning that greenhouse gas emissions will skyrocket in the next three decades, thanks to rising energy use in China, India, and the developing world. The new International Energy Outlook from the US Energy Information Administration reports that global CO2 emissions from fossil fuels will increase 51% by 2030.

Projecting future emissions is by no means simply. The underlying conceit in much of the discussion (e.g. see Pielke et al.) of late is that the projected emissions in the scenarios used by all the climate models are too low. In other words, climate change will be even worse than the models say, and the runaway emissions train will be even harder to stop than we think.

I had to plot some emissions data for a presentation, so I did a quick comparison of the SRES scenarios, the group of future emissions scenarios used by all the climate models in the last IPCC assessments. The global carbon emissions from fossil fuels only in the four main scenarios are plotted in the figure to the right. [A note: These are the means for each scenario. Despite what most people think, A2, A1b, etc. do not each refer to one set of emissions data, rather a series of datasets generated by different economics / emissions models using the same inputs].

Now here's the same graph with the high growth, medium (reference scenario) and low growth scenarios from the IEO (coarse grey/black lines). And the surprise: the path of the highest IEO scenario lies in between SRES A1b and SRES A2, basically what people have been calling "business as usual" for quite some time. The low growth scenario parallels SRES B1, a scenario in which thew world seeks "global solutions to economic, social, and environmental sustainability, including improved equity". The emission path in all the IEO scenarios fall below that of SRES A1F1, the fossil fuel intensive scenario. In other words, the scary new report is no worse than what we were already projecting. That is hardly a reason to celebrate, yes, but it may be a reason to argue with those claiming emissions are rising so fast that climate change mitigation is prohibitively expensive.

There is a caveat. The red line on the graph comes from a recent paper by Sheehan in Climatic Change (see Pielke's commentary). This scenario attempts to take into account the "abrupt shift to rapid growth based on fossil fuels" that has occurred in Asian countries. The paper argues that the SRES scenarios assumed too much decarbonization of the energy system and the economy. The SRES approach is reasonable -- as I've argued before, the emissions intensity of the world economy, the amount of carbon pumped out per unit of GDP, has been declining for decades as we became more efficient at making producing stuff. The problem is that we're at a moment where Asian are using coal and oil to expand, so the global decarbonization is slowing down or even stopping (because the carbon emissions per unit energy production is rising). How and whether recent Asian fossil fuel growth should be extrapolated 25 years into the future, I can't say. I'd be interested to see a comparison of Sheehan-style scenarios with those of the IEO.

(By the way, the IPCC is planning a new set of scenarios for the fifth assessment)

Read More...

Sunday, June 22, 2008

The tradeoff betwen fuel and feed

The central challenge of producing biofuels is that we're already using most of the world's prime agricultural lands to grow food, especially food that we feed to animals. Our work has continuously found that it will be difficult to produce biofuels from prime cropland without reducing meat production. From our paper on the effect of corn-based ethanol production on nitrogen pollution in the Mississippi River:

The land cover analysis in this study raises questions about the availability of land to radically increase ethanol or other biofuel production. Reaching the proposed biofuel production goals will lead to trade-offs between cropland demands for food, feed, and fuel... given the probable ceilings on cropland area, grain yields and use of ethanol coproducts as animal feed, a gradual decrease in use of corn and soybeans for animal feed may be a necessary consequence of the projected increase in demand for biofuels.

Sounds crazy? This conflict is already happening. The flooding in the Midwest U.S. hurt corn planting this year. The NY Times reports that with so much corn promised to ethanol plants, feed will get hard to find. The choice is to reduce the ethanol mandate, open up conservation lands to corn production, or risk damage to the animal production industry:

Senator Charles E. Grassley, Republican of Iowa and one of Capitol Hill’s main voices on farm policy, on Friday urged the Agriculture Department to release tens of thousands of farmers from contracts under which they had promised to set aside huge tracts as natural habitat... In disasters, the Environmental Protection Agency can roll back requirements for ethanol production, which could free up a large amount of corn for animal feed. Mr. Grassley, a strong ethanol backer, rejected that proposition, but in recent days many industries that depend on corn have urged the government to act.

A quarter of the United States corn crop is used for biofuels rather than animal or human food, and the percentage is rising. What this has done to the price of gasoline is debated by ethanol’s critics and defenders, but it has certainly benefited farmers, who have not seen such demand for their corn crop in decades. On the losing side of the equation have been cattle, hog and chicken producers, as well as consumers. The government’s latest projection, released Friday, is that food prices this year will rise as much as 5.5 percent. Some products, including cereals and eggs, are expected to rise about 10 percent.

Read More...

Wednesday, June 18, 2008

Where did we put that drill?

I’ve just returned from south of the border, where a new proposal from President Bush and John McCain to lift the U.S. ban in offshore oil drilling is drawing outrage from environmentalists. The proposal, a stab to appearing to take action against high oil prices, definitely fails the political sniff test. Joe Romm points out that lifting the ban would not have a significant impact on US oil production or prices before 2030.

However, I remain uncomfortable with the stance of much of the US environmental community on this issue. Is American opposition to offshore drilling a case of national NIMBY-ism? The US relies on oil from offshore drilling in Nigeria, Malaysia, Indonesia, and a number of other developing nations. Where is the outrage about the environmental toll of those operations?

Read More...

Tuesday, June 17, 2008

A perfect storm for the Dead Zone

The massive floods in the Midwestern US are likely to fuel the largest Gulf of Mexico Dead Zone in recorded history. The image at right is from the NY Times and the National Weather Service.

Nitrogen applied to crops like corn in the Midwest is the major driver of the now famous Dead Zone, as I've described in a number of previous posts and this Google News commentary. The blame for the high nitrogen levels in the Mississippi and this year's record Dead Zone forecast is being placed on the production of more corn for ethanol. A more complete explanation would be that the surge in corn production, and, hence, fertilizer use, the past few years has made nitrogen pollution more sensitive to the climate than ever.

Nitrogen and hydrology are tightly linked in the Mississippi River Basin, and other agriculturally intensive river basins, thanks to nature and to humans. Several nitrogen 'species' like nitrate are highly soluble. What has exacerbates things in the Mississippi is activities like wetlands, installing artificial drainage under fields and channelizing rivers that reduce chances for nitrogen to be consumed before moving downstream. The result is the amount of nitrogen that the Mississippi sends to the Gulf can actually be predicted from the rainfall in the Corn Belt.

In coverage of our recent paper on corn and the Dead Zone, the prediction that the US Energy Policy would increase average nitrogen loading by 10-34% drew most of the attention. What might be missed is that the nitrogen loading could be much higher if the conditions are wetter.

The reason this matters is the the continental shelf of the Gulf of Mexico has a memory. The usual tale is that the Dead Zone grows each spring and summer when the big flood of Mississippi nitrogen arrives weather and water conditions are ripe for algae growth (it breaks up in the fall when the waters cool and mix, reintroducing oxygen to the bottom waters). However, nitrogen from previous years that is deposited in the sediments can also be recycled and feed algae growth. In other words, the system remembers a big flood of nitrogen. For example, during the 1993 Mississippi floods, the Dead Zone grew to a then-record 17,600 km2; the next year, it grew to an almost equal 16,600 km2, despite 31% less nitrate flowing down the Mississippi. That's just one reason why it is critical to consider climate and climate variability in ecological management and policy.

This year, the Dead Zone is projected to reach over 25,000 km2 in size, 20% greater than the previous maximum. What will that mean for 2009? For 2010? The longer you wait, the harder problems like the Dead Zone are to solve.

Read More...

Wednesday, June 11, 2008

Corals return to Bikini

This has not been a good news year for the world’s oceans. Scientists found an increase in the number of dead zones, documented acidification along the Pacific coast of North America, produced a startling map of the human impact on the global oceans, warned about the decline of Caribbean coral reefs, and detected an increase in the unproductive mid-ocean "deserts". The UNEP Rapid Response Report on the status of the world's fisheries, released in February, had the ominous title "In Dead Water".

For a change, here is a story about the recovery of a marine ecosystem from the most extreme of disturbances. A team of scientists conducted a survey of the coral communities of infamous Bikini Atoll in the Marshall Islands. The results were published earlier this year in a fascinating paper by Richards et al. in the journal Marine Pollution Bulletin that I finally had the chance to read.

Between 1946 and 1958, the U.S. government conducted 23 nuclear tests at Bikini Atoll. You can easily see some of the impact craters using Google Earth the photo at right is a 23 kton test in 1946). The Bikinians were forcibly removed, a story that cannot be told enough.

The Bikinians today live on Majuro Atoll, the capital of now independent Marshall islands. I took this photo of the displaced Bikini Town Hall during a short stay in Majuro a few years back. (It's a a long story; if your only way home involves the only plane of Air Nauru, a bankrupt airline from a rapidly depopulating island nation, you do what the ticket says).

The experience of the Bikinians – or the people of Rongelap, or the Banabans forced to buy an island in Fiji, or the i-Kiribati moved to the Phoenix Islands and back – is a lesson to all those who think it would be “easy” to move communities from islands threatened by climate change. Forced resettlements, whether due to colonial management, World War II, or environmental degradation, have been in many cases disastrous for those leaving their home, those already living in the new home, and the more powerful actors “orchestrating” the migration. But that's an issue for another day. Back to the corals.

A taxonomic study before the nuclear tests found 172 species of hard corals. Richards et al. equated this to 126 species according modern coral taxonomy. The nuclear tests, no surprise, devastated the coral communities. From Richards et al.:

Post-test descriptions of environmental impacts include: surface seawater temperatures raised by 55,000 C after air-borne tests; blast waves with speeds of up to 8 m/s; and shock and surface waves up to 30 m high with blast columns reaching the floor of the lagoon... Coral fragments were reported to have landed on the decks of the target fleet deployed within the lagoon... The most publicized of the Bikini tests, ‘Bravo’... destroyed three islands causing millions of tonnes of sand, coral, plant and sea life from Bikini’s reef to become airborne. The sediment regime in Bikini was fundamentally altered by the nuclear events because millions of tonnes of sediment were pulverized, suspended, transported and then deposited throughout the lagoon by wind-driven lagoonal current patterns.


Five decades later, Richards et al. found 183 species of hard corals living around Bikini (note: the increase from the pre-tests results is likely due to more thorough surveys and better taxonomic knowledge). It is a remarkable recovery considering the complete devastation caused by the nuclear tests. The study concluded that 28 species were lost. Most of those were calm (lagoon) water specialists, whose habitat was most severely and permanently disturbed by the nuclear tests.

The authors find a tragic irony in this tale of recovery:

If the disturbance event were to be repeated in the modern day, recovery would not be expected to be as high, due to the combination of additional stressors associated with climate change (Anthony et al., 2007; Lesser, 2007) and a possibly much altered atoll environment due to an additional 50 years of human occupation. Thus, in a twist of fate, the radioactive contamination of northern Marshall Island Atolls has enabled the recovery of the reefs of Bikini Atoll to take place in the absence of further anthropogenic pressure. Today Bikini Atoll provides a diverse coral reef community and a convincing example of partial resilience of coral biodiversity to non-chronic disturbance events.

Read More...

Monday, June 09, 2008

Where can we find that $45 trillion?

The International Energy Agency released a report that examines what it will take to reduce GHG emissions by 50% by the year 2050. The message of the media coverage: It'll cost US$45 trillion.

The economists and energy experts can debate the details of their projections. See Romm and Pielke for early reactions (which I don't necessarily endorse). Here, I'll only quote the key passage from the executive summary that led to the "45 trillion" headlines. The bold is mine:

"Additional investment needs in the BLUE Map scenario are USD 45 trillion over the period up to 2050. They cover additional R&D, larger deployment investment in technologies not yet market-competitive (even with CO2 reduction incentives), and commercial investment in low-carbon options (stimulated by CO2 reduction incentives). The total is about USD 1.1 trillion per year. This is roughly equivalent to the current GDP of Italy. It represents an averageof some 1.1% of global GDP each year from now until 2050. This expenditure reflects a re-direction of economic activity and employment, and not necessarily a reduction of GDP. While there will be impacts on global GDP, these are hard to predict and beyond the scope of this analysis."

The last bit seems important, no?

Read More...

Wednesday, June 04, 2008

The personal cost of the gas price increase

Yesterday's decision by GM to cut SUV and truck production will costs thousands of people their jobs.

Let's not for a moment pretend that shifting to a more energy efficient transportation system in North America will benefit every North American, especially in the short-term. Imagine though, for a moment, that this shift had been happening as a result of a proactive government policy to price carbon or increase efficiency standards. The automakers could be working with the government to transition plants for manufacturing newer efficient vehicles and to retrain workers, rather than closing plants and laying off workers.

A price on carbon. Yes we can?

Read More...

Tuesday, June 03, 2008

More fallout from high gas prices

With all the focus on the US Senate debate Lieberman-Warner climate bill climate legislation (which awaits a presidential veto) and the pledge by the "central" Canadian provinces of Ontario and Quebec pledge to co-operate on cap-and trade, you might miss this news piece.

From the NY Times:

Responding to a consumer shift to more fuel-efficient vehicles, General Motors said Tuesday that it would stop making pickup trucks and big S.U.V.s at four North American assembly plants and would consider selling its Hummer brand.

Are we continuing to move along the elastic part of the gas tax equation?

(And, on a separate note, are we maybe being a wee bit loose with the definition of "central"? What map is Jean Charest using?)

Read More...