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A recent \u003Ca href=\"http:\/\/www.agu.org\/pubs\/crossref\/2007\/2007GL030995.shtml\"\u003Eshort paper\u003C\/a\u003E in Geophysical Research Letters reminds us that the Arctic climate is complicated and the sea ice decline will not be smooth or orderly. The authors Jennifer Francis and Elias Hunter from Rutgers find that the factors influencing sea ice cover in the Bering Sea (that’s the Pacific side) and the \u003Cst1:place st=\"on\"\u003EBarents  Sea\u003C\/st1:place\u003E (the Atlantic\/Norwegian side) are quite different:\u003Co:p\u003E\u003C\/o:p\u003E\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/p\u003E    \u003Cp class=\"MsoNormal\"\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"\" lang=\"EN-CA\"\u003E\u003Co:p\u003E\u003C\/o:p\u003E\u003C\/span\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"font-size:85%;\"\u003EBetween 1979 and 2005 in the \u003Cst1:place st=\"on\"\u003EBering Sea\u003C\/st1:place\u003E, the ice edge is influenced mainly by anomalies in easterly winds associated with the Aleutian Low, which was particularly strong during the 1980s. The \u003Cst1:place st=\"on\"\u003EBarents Sea\u003C\/st1:place\u003E ice edge, in contrast, is driven primarily by two factors: anomalies in sea-surface temperature, particularly close in time to the maximum extent, and by southerly wind (from the south) anomalies integrated back to mid- and early winter. The hemispheric-mean decline in winter ice extent is due in large part to increasing sea-surface temperatures in the \u003Cst1:place st=\"on\"\u003EBarents Sea\u003C\/st1:place\u003E and adjoining waters, which are consistent with increased concentrations of greenhouse gases.\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/p\u003E        \u003Cp class=\"MsoNormal\"\u003E\u003Co:p\u003E\u003C\/o:p\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"\" lang=\"EN-CA\"\u003E\u003Ca onblur=\"try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}\" href=\"http:\/\/3.bp.blogspot.com\/_7NrAt8xGd0E\/RvHGf1LYMgI\/AAAAAAAAASA\/0qyPXQ6HIVU\/s1600-h\/Picture1.jpg\"\u003E\u003Cimg style=\"margin: 0pt 0pt 10px 10px; float: right; cursor: pointer;\" src=\"http:\/\/3.bp.blogspot.com\/_7NrAt8xGd0E\/RvHGf1LYMgI\/AAAAAAAAASA\/0qyPXQ6HIVU\/s320\/Picture1.jpg\" alt=\"\" id=\"BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5112085302195270146\" border=\"0\" \/\u003E\u003C\/a\u003EIf you want a simple climate-ice connection, try a small temperate lake.\u003Co:p\u003E\u003C\/o:p\u003E There, mechanical (wind) action and ice dynamics have a relatively small effect on the areal ice coverage. The net accumulation of below-freezing temperatures in the fall is a very good indicator of the date of “ice on” – basically the inverse of how we predict \u003Ca href=\"http:\/\/www.osdpd.noaa.gov\/PSB\/EPS\/CB_indices\/coral_bleaching_indices.html\"\u003Ecoral bleaching\u003C\/a\u003E. So when the late fall and early winter is warm, as happened last year in eastern North America, the lakes either freeze later or not at all. That’s little \u003Cst1:place st=\"on\"\u003E\u003Cst1:placename st=\"on\"\u003EMuldrew\u003C\/st1:placename\u003E \u003Cst1:placetype st=\"on\"\u003ELake\u003C\/st1:placetype\u003E\u003C\/st1:place\u003E in the photo, with just an inch of slushy ice and snow on Dec. 28\u003Csup\u003Eth\u003C\/sup\u003E of last year, to the consternation of those of us clutching hockey sticks. And the net accumulation of temperatures above freezing is a decent indicator of the date of “ice off”, though winter snowfall levels, winds and the non-linearity of albedo changes complicate matters a little bit.\u003Co:p\u003E\u003C\/o:p\u003E\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/p\u003E    \u003Cp class=\"MsoNormal\"\u003E\u003Cspan style=\"\" lang=\"EN-CA\"\u003E\u003Co:p\u003E\u003C\/o:p\u003EYes, limnologists do say “ice on” and “ice off” as if they are in a Canadian adaptation of the \u003Ca href=\"http:\/\/www.imdb.com\/title\/tt0087538\/\"\u003EThe Karate Kid\u003C\/a\u003E. These days, it is probably safer for Ralph Macchio to clean the ice by hand. If this winter is as warm, I wouldn’t recommend driving a Zambonie out on the lake. \u003Co:p\u003E\u003C\/o:p\u003E\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/p\u003E"},"link":[{"rel":"replies","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"http:\/\/simondonner.blogspot.com\/feeds\/2656909445762672076\/comments\/default","title":"Post Comments"},{"rel":"replies","type":"text/html","href":"http:\/\/www.blogger.com\/comment.g?blogID=25163458\u0026postID=2656909445762672076\u0026isPopup=true","title":"1 Comments"},{"rel":"edit","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"http:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/25163458\/posts\/default\/2656909445762672076"},{"rel":"self","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"http:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/25163458\/posts\/default\/2656909445762672076"},{"rel":"alternate","type":"text/html","href":"http:\/\/simondonner.blogspot.com\/2007\/09\/complexity-of-ice-melt.html","title":"The complexity of ice melt"}],"author":[{"name":{"$t":"Unknown"},"email":{"$t":"noreply@blogger.com"},"gd$image":{"rel":"http://schemas.google.com/g/2005#thumbnail","width":"16","height":"16","src":"https:\/\/img1.blogblog.com\/img\/b16-rounded.gif"}}],"media$thumbnail":{"xmlns$media":"http://search.yahoo.com/mrss/","url":"http:\/\/3.bp.blogspot.com\/_7NrAt8xGd0E\/RvHGf1LYMgI\/AAAAAAAAASA\/0qyPXQ6HIVU\/s72-c\/Picture1.jpg","height":"72","width":"72"},"thr$total":{"$t":"1"}}]}});